🗞️ Weekend Price & Flow Analysis - Feb 1

NQ ES GC Prep for week 06, staring Feb 1, 2026

Jan 31, 2026

⚡️TL;DR

NQ and ES are back at key November levels, next week may decide if we break down or not.
Futures and ETF flow are not aligned, which gives me less conviction on moves.
High yields keep pressure on NQ and can cap ES rallies; a softer dollar is supportive for GC.
The tone is more defensive with VIX elevated and small caps weak, so I expect more chop and bigger intraday swings.
Gold is unstable after the sharp run and pullback, so next week is about whether it rebuilds support or keeps sliding. Alot of people go hurt bad last week.

🌐 Price & Flow

📊 Futures Indices

Price, Options Flow, Order Flow…

NQ (Nasdaq Futures) -

📈 Price / Levels (NQ):
- Attempted new highs, rejected 26400s, pinned at 25650s, which has been an important level since Nov.
🌊 Options flow (QQQ):
- Call volume was strong at the begging of the week, supported by volume delta, but puts took over in the middle of week as we started to top. Thursday has strong call volume, but Friday ended mix. Volume was mixed as well.
🔀 Order flow (NQ vs QQQ):
- CVD was mostly bearish on NQ during the week, while QQQ was bullish 🤔
- NQ had bullish Imbalance/Absorption at the highs, while QQQ showed bearish. Lots of bullish levels at the current pin levels (25650s / 620s)

ES (S&P Futures) -

📈 Price / Levels (ES):
- Barely swept new all-time-high, but rejected back to 6920s pin level from Nov.
🌊 Options flow (SPY):
- Monday started with strong volume delta, but neutral options flow, then over the week volume trended toward neutral while calls picked up Thursday and Friday.
🔀 Order flow (ES vs SPY):
- CVD closed super green for SPY on Friday; remained green all week for ES
- Bullish Imbalance/Absorption on both ES and SPY around (6970s, 694s)

GC(Gold Futures) -

📈 Price / Levels (GC):
- Pushed through new highs 5600s, then lost 50% of the move since Nov. Craziness happening. Big profit taking and manipulation?
- 4600s and 5150s are interesting levels to watch.
🌊 Options flow (GLD):
- Volume delta slightly more bullish, but option flow was neutral all week as price constantly lifted to new highs.
- Disagreement on volume delta (bullish) and options flow (bearish) on Friday 🤔
🔀 Order flow (GC vs GLD):
- Rising CVD all week for GLD, with GC having a big red volume day. Looks like more people are buying into the ETF.
- Big buying imbalance on GC at 5630s, but 505s on GLD has bearish levels. Looks like GC had logs of bullish levels as price fell lower, while GLD showed bearishness. 445s on GLD seems to be a coin-flip level, lets see if it holds or breaks down.

VIX (S&P Fear Index) - Spiked up again this week, but couldn’t clear last week’s highs around 21s. Friday ended with more call volume tho.

YM (Dow Futures) - Forming a curved top (inverted cup?) on the daily, looking heavy. volume is neutral, while Friday call volume was slightly elevated.

RTY (Russel Futures) - Clearly breaking support around 2630s, with a massive put volume spike on Thursday. Friday options flow was neutral as price breaks down.

Overall

This week attempted to breakout but got rejected.

NQ and ES pushed toward new highs and then snapped back to key November “pin” areas, setting up clear decision levels for next week. The standout theme was the disconnect between futures vs ETF flow: NQ’s order flow/CVD leaned heavier while QQQ and SPY looked stronger. Gold is crazy, ripping to new highs and then giving back a huge chunk of the move while GLD flow looked steadier.

With VIX staying elevated, YM looking heavy, and RTY breaking support with a big put spike, the overall direction seems like higher volatility. If the major pin levels hold early next week, the market could push higher; if they break, downside fun…

⚡️Review of Top Names QQQ (NQ), SPY (ES)

Price, Options Flow, Order Flow…

NVDA (Nvidia) - Price held firm around the recent base and kept grinding up; call interest stayed supportive and order flow shows buyers defending dips, so momentum stays intact unless it slips back under that base.

APPL (Apple) - A bounce started, and calls were active, but order flow still shows a lot of bearish overhead—next week is about whether it can push through that “ceiling” or roll back over.

MSFT (Microsoft) - Trying to snapback after a hard drop, but options flow looked the most defensive and trapped buyers sit above from the bullish order flow levels.
Any push-ups may sell off for a bit imo.

AVGO (Broadcom) - Still stuck in a lower, messy range; options weren’t strong enough to overpower the selling shown in order flow, so it needs a clean reclaim higher to improve.

AMZN (Amazon) - Price still looks like it’s setting up for higher, but options flow and order flow was mixed, pointing to more ‘grind’ unless bulls really take over

TSLA (Tesla) - Downward trending sideways action with mixed options activity and order flow.. Likely more swings until it breaks out of the downward range.

META (Meta) - Supper strong on earnings then staring to fall over on lawsuit news. Buyers showing up in order flow and aggressive options activity backing the move.

GOOG (Google) - Steady uptrend with decent call support and buyers defending pullbacks; stays strong as long as it holds the recent base.

Overall, strength is concentrated in META/GOOG/NVDA, while MSFT/AVGO/TSLA look more fragile or in a range. AAPL is still working through overhead imbalance/absorption. Lets see if the strong names can stay strong and give time for the weaker names to catch up.

⚡️Review of Gold / Macro

Price, Options Flow…

DXY (Dollar) - The dollar broke down hard and trying to bounce , which could supports commodities, but it could be reacting to potential policy shifts with new FED chair incoming.

TNX (Treasury Note) - Yields are still elevated even after a small pullback, keeping pressure on rate-sensitive assets like tech and could make rallies in stocks and gold more tentative.

BTC (Bitcoin) - BTC/IBIT looked heavy this week, and the options tape leaned more defensive (more put interest / weaker bid). Cooling for now.

CL (Crude Oil) - Oil is breaking higher, adding an inflation tailwind. Put volume was elevate in the middle of the week but went neutral on Friday.

SI (Silver) - Silver gave back a big chunk of it’s crazy rise. Put volume is elevated all week. This hurt alot of people who bought at highs.. so lets see if more people pile in, or everyone stays on the sidelines

PA (Palladium) - Showed weakness at the end of last year, and this dropped stayed within that breakdown range. Similar story to silver, let’s see how participations pans out next week

HG (Copper) - New hight to sharp breakdown, following the silver narrative.

GC (Gold) - (See analysis in previous section above)

Overall, dollar dropped hard but is trying to stabilize, which usually helps commodities if it stays weak (and it may also be reacting to shifting Fed/policy expectations). Yields are still high even after a small dip, which can keep tech and the broader market from getting too comfortable on rallies. Bitcoin cooled off and the options activity looked more cautious. Oil is moving higher again, which can keep inflation worries alive. The metals (silver, palladium, copper) made big runs and then gave a lot back—so next week is about whether buyers come back in, or if traders stay hesitant after getting burned.

⚡️Review of Sectors

Price, Options Flow…

XLK (Technology) - Tech slipped back after a push higher, and options activity leaned defensive (more protection than upside bets).

XLF (Finance) - Financials are fading from the highs and trying to stabilize, but options were still heavily skewed toward downside protection.

XLY (Consumer) - Consumer discretionary is choppy near recent highs, and options were mostly balanced with a small tilt toward upside.

XLE (Energy) - Energy broke higher, and options positioning leaned bullish with more upside interest.

XLV (Healthcare) - Healthcare stayed range-bound and a bit heavy, and options showed a mild “play it safe” tone.

XLI (Industrial) - Industrials are still holding a strong uptrend, while options look more neutral than aggressive.

XLP (Staples) - Staples caught a strong rally, and options leaned slightly more positive as money rotates into steadier areas.

XLU (Utilities) - Utilities are still stuck in a sideways base, and options leaned a little bearish with limited confidence in a breakout.

Tech and Financials are pulling back and traders are leaning more protective there, while Energy is the clearest strength with more upside interest. Consumer and Industrials look mixed but not breaking down. Staples are getting strong buying, and Healthcare and Utilities are still sluggish, which usually shows money is rotating into safer areas instead of chasing risk. Overall, the market tone feels more defensive than aggressive going into next week.